Last week’s outcome of the Kitutu Masaba by-election is a pointer to just how politics in Kisii is becoming unpredictable to the major players.

Political analysts say the trend in Bomachoge, South Mugirango and now Kitutu Masaba by-elections shows how independent-minded the Gusii voters have become.

According to local leaders, the electorate, to a large extent, has been delivering results that defy popular expectation.

And with the retirement of former powerful Cabinet minister and influential Gusii leader Simeon Nyachae, the region’s more than 500,000 votes remain up for grabs for presidential candidates.

Nyachae suffered a shock defeat to Narc’s Robert Monda in 2007, significantly freeing the region of his influence.

In the run-up to the by-election, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Assistant minister Peter Kenneth and Narc-K leader Martha Karua had pitched tent in Kisii.

And while they campaigned for candidates of their respective parties, the by-election also set the stage for the presidential hopefuls to drum up support for next year’s poll bids in an area whose political direction is hard to predict.

PNU’s Walter Nyambati won to retain his seat. His election, many say, could further complicate the 2012 political matrix in the county.

The by-election was billed as a rehearsal ahead of next year’s General Election, with political parties using the contest to flex their muscles.

Education Minister Sam Ongeri attributed the win to a thorough grassroots strategy.

Victory speech

In his victory speech at Nyambaria tallying centre, Nyambati claimed his win was testament that ODM had lost support in Kisii and proof that the era when political parties dictated who is to be elected was gone.

"I was assured of victory since the people had confidence in me," said Nyambati.

However, Public Works Minister Chris Obure, who camped in the constituency to back the ODM candidate, maintained his party put up a good fight and cited voter bribery as the key factor in Nyambati’s win.

"I congratulate Nyambati on his re-election but ODM put in a good fight and I am grateful to the Kitutu Masaba residents for conducting themselves well. We all know the involvement of money to influenced the outcome," said Obure.

He also accused the Provincial Administration of being partisan.

"Our supporters in Kitutu Masaba and across the country should not see this as a setback to ODM’s popularity. In fact, the party has gained tremendously and Raila’s standing here is good," he added.

Obure refuted claims that ODM had picked an unpopular candidate, saying the party would have conducted nominations had more people expressed interest.

Lawyer Joash Maangi said the outcome had nothing to do with ODM’s popularity since several parties had ganged up against it.

Raila visit

"It is unfortunate that most ODM MPs from Kisii didn’t support Bosire. They made a technical appearance when Raila visited and disappeared since all Gusii MPs had a pact not to undermine each other," he says.

Gideon Moreka says ODM did well to emerge second against the force of PNU, G7 and PDP. "ODM remains the party to watch in Kisii as the Kitutu Masaba poll was marred by vote-buying," said Mr Moreka.

Foreign Affairs Assistant minister Richard Onyonka warned it would be foolhardy for any party to take credit for the outcome of the Kitutu Masaba poll. The Kitutu Chache MP said it should not be assumed the verdict in Kitutu Masaba offers the political direction of the Gusii.

"Constituents felt that even if the court ruling righted a wrong, it was too late to deny Nyambati a chance to complete his term. If Ford People had won, then we would have said the tide is changing on the ground but Kisii will always vote in diversity," says Onyonka.

He added: "I think ODM should go back to the drawing board and come up with strategies to ensure it maintains an edge within Kisii. Raila is still popular in the area but this has to be nurtured looking ahead into 2012".

Like most leaders, Onyonka blames the role of money in Kisii politics, terming it alarming and saying wealthy candidates carried the day while cardinal issues affecting residents are ignored.

"ODM was only trying to capture the seat held by Nyambati so it did very well. I do believe, however, that the party did not do its homework thoroughly and little effort was put in at the finish line," he added.

Ongeri factor

PDP chairman Stephen Nyarangi said: "Nyambati won because he identified with wananchi and had the support of Ongeri, who has Nyachae’s blessings. PNU, G7 and PDP will coalesce to produce the next president."

Safina party official Cyprian Nyamwamu said ODM shouldn’t have fielded a candidate in the by-election.

"This outcome can’t be a gauge to measure the popularity of parties in Kisii. In 12 months, Kenyans will vote again under different parameters. PNU put in a lot of cash in Kitutu Masaba to buy votes and this explains the less than 50 per cent voter turnout," he says.

Nyamwamu said it was disappointing the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) appeared to lack teeth to address teething electoral malpractices yet is had massive powers under the Constitution.