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Somalia: What Next? PDF Print E-mail
Saturday, 29 October 2011 16:27

For over two decades, the international community has chosen piecemeal tactics to deal with Somalia.  Kenya has tacitly played along, diligently attending the almost monthly international meetings on Somalia and numerous peace negotiations.

One almost loses track of the various agreements signed by Somalis to end violence, all named after Africa’s cities where they have taken place- Sodere Agreement,  Cairo Agreement , Addis Ababa Agreement , Arta Agreement, Nairobi Conference, Djibouti Agreement, Kampala Accord-  just to name a few, yet peace and stability have proven elusive for the last two decades.

In a marked departure from its history, instead of hosting another Somalia Conference, Kenya was this month forced to make the difficult decision of deploying its men and women to Somalia to defend its national security in hot pursuit. This historical decision will remain a benchmark for the nation of Kenya.

Operation Linda Nchi(Operation protect the Nation) has so far received national applause. Kenyans are simply fed up by what they see as perceptions from the Al-shabaab of Kenya’s military incapacity to respond even to direct attacks in its hinterland.  With an economy that heavily depends on tourism, Al-shabaab made the wrong decision in targeting tourists in Lamu, western humanitarian workers in Dadaab Camp, Kenyan military personnel have frequently been killed or harmed in ambushes executed by Al-shabab.

I believe that the international community has given a covert nod to Kenya’s efforts. The IGAD Council of Ministers held an extraordinary meeting on 21 October and adopted a communiqué expressing support for the Kenyan operation.  Many of Kenya’s partners have expressed their support in different ways including through technical support. 

Kenya has been one of the strongest supporters of President Ahmed. Early this year, the Speaker of the Federal Parliament, launched a vicious attack against the President pushing for elections to be held by last August. That would have seen the president’s likely ouster. It was Kenya that led the charge in convincing the international community, the UN Security Council, and Somalis to extend his mandate for one more year. The Kenyan government felt that there was a need to consolidate the gains made by AMISOM after making early inroads in Mogadishu. It was too early to hold elections with no electoral or legal framework to guide such an exercise.  This support was in spite of reports from reliable sources that President Ahmed was being propped up by the radical Al-Sheikh group.

Earlier statements attributed to Somali’s President Sheikh Ahmed as criticizing the military actions of Kenya in ridding the country off the Al -shabaab terrorist group, were therefore shocking to Kenya, and many in the international community. It is somewhat reassuring that the Transitional Federal Government and the TFG Prime minister have clarified this position. The TFG has affirmed that the Communiqué signed on 18 October in Mogadishu by Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula, the Somali Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister for Defence Hussein Arab Isse on military coordination had been signed. The Communiqué is actually now an official document of the United Nations Security Council.

Kenya’s goal must be to ensure that there is a stable Federal Government in Somalia that can reach out to other groups and stakeholders in this crisis. The instruments guiding this roadmap (the Djibouti Process and the Kampala Accords) all recommend that the TFG must make deliberate attempts to negotiate with all the players in Somalia including Al-shabbab. This is the point I was making when I said that as an honest broker in the Somalia crisis, Kenya must always leave a window of opportunity for a negotiated settlement in Somalia. This window of opportunity must include Al-shabaab as long as they renounce violence.

It is important that the government of Somalia now takes its responsibilities seriously. Our Ugandan and Burundian brothers have made enough sacrifices in the battleground to save Somalia. We must encourage the other African countries such as Djibouti and Sudan who are willing to provide extra troops for this noble cause to do so expeditiously. The international contact group on Somalia must recognize and accept the inclusion of other players such as China and Turkey as emerging key international players in this conflict. The least the government of Somalia can do is to make its people in Mogadishu witness the dividends of stability by wisely using resources in its hands for reconstruction efforts. This must be done with a high level of accountability and transparency.

The government of Somalia needs to be pressured to do what any government in the world does- to govern. President Sheikh Sharif needs to rid himself off the Al-Sheikh extremists around him that are making it difficult for him to bring real reconciliation to Somalia. He must rise up to be a Statesman and bridge the differences among the various clans. Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali has elaborated clear priorities for his government; it is now time to deliver. It is time to consolidate peace, encourage the thriving Somalia business community and the Somali Diaspora to realize that there can also be a peace time economic growth and development in Somalia that does not rely only on war and piracy economics.

The TFG must realize it is time to move on with the transitional tasks, they should adopt a new constitution that will usher in a new set of leaders and institutions by August 2012. It is time to build a civil service that works, using many of the educated Somalis in the Diaspora and refugee camps. It is time to build a military and police force that can protect its people. It is time to ensure that no more refugees flow into Dadaab and other Capitals of the world.

The TFG government must deliver peace, stability and development to its people. That is what the people of Somalia deserve. The international community can help, but the seriousness and leadership must start with the Somali people. They have shown resilience in the face of war and famine, they surely can triumph in times of peace.

As Kenya engages in Somalia, we must be aware that this engagement preemptively includes insurgency, counterinsurgency, and propaganda. We must be steadfast and clear in our strategic objectives and provide an exit strategy. This may include a three pronged approach.

Firstly, we must proceed vigorously on the military front by suffocating the Al-shabaab from Kismayu to Mogadishu. To consolidate the gains made by AMISOM and the Kenyan forces, the international partners and the United Nations Security Council should fast-track the deployment of AMISOM to the projected 20,000 troops from the current 9,000 troops.

Secondly, we must endeavor to implement the proposals of the UN Secretary-General, IGAD and the African Union on counter-piracy efforts. In the report issued this week for consideration by the Security Council on 31 October, the UN Secretary-General encourages Member States and multi-national organizations participating in naval operations off the Coast of Somalia to use their forces in addressing the root causes of piracy and continue to develop land-based initiatives to strengthen regional maritime and law-enforcement capacity, especially those of Somalia. We must institute a sea blockade of Kismayu that both IGAD and the AU have requested for the last few years. All these efforts together, will make a huge dent in cutting off the lifeline for Al-shabaab and the pirates.

Thirdly, Kenya must realize that logistical support is needed urgently to sustain and consolidate current gains including in the region of south central Somalia and a liberated Kismayo port. We must allow an immediate installation of governance structures by the Somali people from the regions liberated to fill the vacuum left by the Al-shabab departure. Quick-impact projects such as schools, hospitals, police stations, and roads must be provided immediately. Peace and security must be prioritized for the population to feel secure. Provision of basic services such as water, sanitation, and relief food must be immediate. The international community must engage and give the requisite resources for this exercise. They must not tire or suffer from donor fatigue. There is light at the end of the tunnel on Somalia

 

Hon. Richard M. Onyonka

Assistant Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (KENYA).

The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of the Kenyan Government.